Housing in These Cities May Become Unaffordable by 2028
House prices are still on the rise, and as we approach a new decade, there are a handful of housing markets where home prices could be unaffordable before that upcoming decade ends.
GOBankingRates conducted a study where it found 16 cities across the nation that are projected to experience significant jumps in home value that would take their average home value from under the national median to above the national median.
To determine this, GOBankingRates used Zillow’s one-year forecast to project the growth in home values in each city over the next 10 years.
From there, the study identified the places where that change would move the average home value from under the national median, which is currently just above $230,000 and is growing by 2.8% each year, to beyond the median at some point in the next 10 years.
But the study cautions that its approach has “some caveats,” namely projecting 10 years into the future based on a single year’s growth rate could “ultimately paint an unfair picture in markets where the current rate is an anomaly.”
The study also notes that Zillow’s estimated home values “don’t necessarily reflect” the list prices or sale prices in each market.
With those caveats stated, according to the study, Charlotte, North Carolina is expected to become unaffordable sooner rather than later. It is projected to be unaffordable as soon as 2020, with home values climbing from $230,300 now to $239,780.42 next year.
That would beat the projected median home value price of $237,514.20.
Spokane, Washington and St. Petersburg, Florida are also projected to become unaffordable by 2020, with median home prices reaching $238,380.21 and $238,336.99 respectively.
Overall, home prices are expected to continue rising nationwide.
Last month, CoreLogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft told HousingWire that since mortgage rates are lowering, home prices probably will increase 5.8% through August 2020.
Four Texas towns also make the list of cities where home prices may become unaffordable.
The Dallas/Fort Worth suburb of Irving, Texas is projected to become unaffordable by 2021, with its median home price reaching $246,457, a nearly $3,000 difference from 2019 values of $223,700.
The report says that because it’s nestled between Dallas and Fort Worth, it leads to competitive rising home values.
Grand Prairie, Texas is another DFW suburb that’s also projected to see rising home prices, reaching unaffordability by 2023.
Its projected home value is $263,209.76, while the 2019 home value is just $214,900. Meanwhile, Dallas is expected to reach unaffordability by 2024, with projected home values worth $266,476.06. Currently, median home values in Dallas are $213,400.
Beyond that, Arlington, Texas is soon going to become home to more than just the stadium where the Dallas Cowboys play. Its median 2019 home values stand at $212,300, and projected to get to $283,446.59 by 2026.
Posted on housingwire.com on 11/18/19.